Countries with Declining Population 2025

Population decline, also known as depopulation, is a reduction over time in the number of individuals living in any particular country, town, or other geographic area. Population decline can be caused by one or a combination of many possible trends, including aging, emigration, birth rates and/or fertility rates below the population’s replacement rate, high infant mortality rates due to underdeveloped health care systems, and high death rates due to war and violence, disease, or other catastrophes.

Population decline has both positive and negative impacts on a nation. A shrinking population can mean more resources can be allocated to the population and per capita wealth could increase. Additionally, a declining population alleviates the problems associated with overpopulation in areas affected by it, such as increased pollution, traffic, real estate and rent prices, and environmental degradation. However, population decline can also lead to an aging population and a shrinking workforce—especially in terms of highly-educated, high-skilled workers. These shortages can cause an overall reduction in quality of life, government-funded programs, and national GDP.

Due to varying demographic challenges around the world, many countries are facing shrinking populations. The United Nations regularly publishes demographic projections of metrics including fertility, mortality, and international migration. These projections enable analysts at Business Insider and other outlets to determine the 20 countries projected to have the largest percentage population declines over the next three decades (2020-2050). By far the greatest area of population decline in the world is Eastern Europe, where many countries are losing large portions of their population to emigration.

Top 20 Countries with the Fastest Population Decline 2024-2050 (United Nations 2019)

1. Bulgaria

Bulgaria’s population is expected to decline by 20.6% from 6.8 million in 2024 to 5.4 million in 2050. Mass outbound migration is the largest contributor towards Bulgaria’s population decline.

2. Lithuania

The Lithuanian population is projected to shrink by 20.7% between 2024 and 2050. The population is expected to shrink from 2.9 million to 2.3 million people. Like Bulgaria, Lithuania’s largest population loss is due to mass emigration.

3. Latvia

Latvia is expecting a 21.05% population loss between 2024 and 2050. Latvia has lost about one-fifth of its population since joining the European Union in May 2004. Latvia’s population loss is caused by economic migration and low birth rates.

4. Ukraine

Ukraine’s population fell from 43.7 million in 2020 to 37.9 million in 2024, a sharp loss of 5.8 million people over only four years, largely due to the war with Russia, which precipitated not only casualties but a flood of refugees. Ukraine’s population is projected to decline to 35.2 million in 2050, a further 7.12% loss. High emigration rates coupled with high death rates and low birth rates are to blame for any projected population loss in Ukraine. The country’s peacetime birth rate was 9.2 births per 1,000 people, and its death rate was 15.2 deaths per 1,000 people.

5. Serbia

The Serbian population declined from 8.7 million in 2020 to 6.4 million in 2024, another sharp decrease of 26.4% within only four years. Serbia’s population is projected to further decline to 5.5 million by 2050. This would be a loss of about 14%. Many of Serbia’s highly educated and skilled workers have left the country to find better job opportunities since there are very few in Serbia. The high emigration rates are coupled with low fertility.

6. Bosnia and Herzegovina

The population is projected to decline by 21.9%, shrinking from 3.2 million in 2024 to 2.5 million in 2050. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s fertility rate is well below the population replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman at 1.26 births per woman.

7. Croatia

Croatia’s population is expected to shrink by about 18.0%. The population is projected to drop from 3.9 million to 3.2 million between 2024 and 2050. The population reached its peak in 1991 at 4.78 million but has since been declining because of low birth rates and an aging population.

8. Moldova

Moldova lost 1 million in population between 2020 and 2024, a drop of 25%. The country’s population is projected to further decline by 20% from 2024 to 2050. It is expected to fall by 600,000 from 3 million to 2.4 million. Poverty and corruption in Moldova have pushed the highly-skilled, young workers out of the country, and the aging population has been plagued by poor living standards and high mortality rates.

9. Japan

Japan’s population is projected to lose 18.7 million people between 2024 and 2050. The population is expected to shrink from 123.8 million to 105.1 million, a 15.1% decline. Japan’s population has been falling since 2011 due to very low fertility rates (1.42 births per woman) and an aging population.

10. Albania

The Albanian population is expected to decrease by 21.4% between 2024 and 2050, falling from 2.8 million people to 2.2 million. It is estimated that over 38% of the Albanian population lives abroad.

11. Romania

Romania’s population is projected to decline by 15.8% from 2024 to 2050. The population will be reduced from 19 million to 16 million over the next three decades. Between 2007 and 2015, about 3.5 million Romanians went abroad to escape poverty and widespread corruption.

12. Greece

The population of Greece is expected to shrink from 10 million to 8.8 million, a loss of more than 12%, over the next 26 years. Greece’s population began declining in 2011 when the first negative birth rate was recorded. Greece’s population could decline by up to 50% over the next 50 years if nothing is done to combat it.

13. Estonia

Estonia’s population of 1.4 million is projected to decline by 14.3% to 1.2 million by 2050. Compared to other Baltic states, Estonia’s population decline has been relatively slow and stable. Immigration has delayed a quicker population decline in recent years.

14. Hungary

Hungary’s population is projected to drop from 9.7 million in 2024 to 8.7 million in 2050. This is a population decline of about 10.3%. Hungary’s population has fallen by about over 40,000 per year and shows no signs of slowing down. Hungary has instituted policies focused on boosting birthrates to help slow the population decline.

15. Poland

Poland’s population is predicted to drop by 14.8%. Between 2024 and 2050, the population is expected to drop from 38.5 million to 32.8 million people. Low birth rates and continued emigration are the two main reasons for Poland’s population decline.

16. Georgia

The population is expected to decline by 2.63%, shrinking from 3.8 million to 3.7 million from 2024 to 2050. The decline in Georgia’s population is caused by emigration in search of better jobs in other countries.

17. Portugal

The Portuguese population is projected to decline from 10.4 million to 9.8 million by 2050, a 5.8% decline. Portugal has made attempts to lure back those who emigrated, whether or not they are highly paid or highly skilled.

18. North Macedonia

North Macedonia’s population is expected to drop by 10.9%, shrinking from 2.1 million to 1.9 million from 2020 to 2050. North Macedonia’s population has fallen by 24.6% since its independence in 1991.

19. Cuba

Cuba’s population of 11 million is expected to shrink to 9.4 million by 2050, a 14.6% decline. The young people leaving the country and low birth rates are resulting in an increasingly aging population. Cuba’s population is expected to be the ninth-oldest in the world by 2050.

20. Italy

Italy’s population is projected to shrink by about 12.5% from 2024 to 2050. The current population of 59.3 million people will be reduced to 51.9 million. Births are at an all-time low since the unification of Italy, and young people are leaving Italy for other European countries for job opportunities.